Financial development,economic growth and convergence clubs

To study the role of financial development in economic growth, we apply an array of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real outputs per capita. Strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs is observed, implying that the clubs are formed based on the initial level of real output per capita and average growth rate. Our empirical results show that the stage of economic growth of each country plays an important role for the composition of the convergence clubs. Furthermore, financial development emerges to be a significant determinant, albeit plays differently in the economic growth of each convergence club.     

Aggregate insider trading and market returns: The role of transparency

Using a sample of countries that require timely disclosures of insider trades, I investigate the effect of country‐level institutions that promote transparency on the extent to which aggregate insider trades predict market returns. I find that financial information transparency mitigates the predictive content of aggregate insider trades when markets are more likely to deviate from fundamentals (i.e., during market fads), and when there is greater co‐movement in stock prices. In contrast, there is some evidence that governance and investor protection mitigate the association between aggregate insider trades and future earnings surprises. Hence, holding constant the timely disclosures of insider trades, other capital market institutions play complementary roles in mitigating the informational frictions that give rise to the predictive content of aggregate insider trades.     

Financial constraints on export market exit of domestic firms versus foreign multinational corporation subsidiaries in South Korea

Using a Korean manufacturing firm-level data set covering a range of years from 2006 to 2013, this study investigates how the financial condition of firms, such as liquidity, leverage, and cash flow ratio, affects exit from export markets. It also analyses whether the financial status of foreign multinational corporation (MNC) subsidiaries differs from that of domestic firms with respect to the hazard of export market exit, especially during a global financial crisis. The empirical results confirm that, for domestic firms, the hazard of export market exit is affected by the firms’ financial condition only during a financial crisis. In other words, the financial vulnerability of domestic firms increases during the crisis, resulting in the hazard of export market exit. However, financial situations for foreign MNC subsidiaries do not affect exits from export markets, indicating a ‘finance-factor comparative advantage’.     

Investigating menu kilojoule labelling policy adoption from a political science perspective

Implementation of internationally recommended policy options for obesity prevention has generally been slow and inadequate globally, and, as such, it is important to understand barriers and enablers to policy action in the area. This study aimed to apply political science theories to understand influences on the adoption of Menu Kilojoule Labelling Legislation in Victoria, Australia over the period 2009–2017. Data collection included 13 in-depth semi-structured interviews with participants of the policy development and decision-making processes, analysis of 68 policy documents, and field note observations. Data were analysed using established political science theories: the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) and the Multiple Streams Theory (MST). There were numerous and interrelating factors that influenced the Menu Kilojoule Labelling Legislative policy processes. Barriers to policy reform included electoral turnover, a dominance of neoliberal ideology, and policy maker concerns regarding potential food industry backlash. Key enablers to eventual policy change included the accumulation of evidence on policy effectiveness and feasibility of implementation, increased recognition of the importance of tackling the issue, as well as reductions in political risks achieved, in part, through relatively long consultation and negotiation processes. Findings highlight several tactics that can be used to secure similar policy change in future, including generation, dissemination and translation of implementation evidence, effective mobilisation of supporters, and negotiation and consultation processes that can reduce the degree of opposition to proposed policies.     

Situating the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in the context of global economic governance

The creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)was welcomed by the World Bank but opposed by the Obamaadministration. The paper explains China’s positive relationshipwith the Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment (OECD) in terms of the mission of the Bank, sharedby the OECD, to develop and deepen the global economy. The AIIBand the related Belt and Road initiative promise to do this throughinvestment in infrastructure and connectivity in and around thepoorly integrated Eurasian landmass. But while the current Chineseleadership has supported an inclusive global economy based uponfree trade and supported by multilateral institutions, China’s controlof resources outside the multilateral framework and adherence topractices that challenge liberal principles prompt suspicions thatthese commitments are either disingenuous or anyway subjectto reversal. In itself, therefore, the AIIB provides no conclusiveevidence either way on China’s future course.     

The long overhang of bad decisions in agro-industrial development: Sugar and tomato paste in Ghana

In theory, learning from past mistakes should result in adapted and improved development policy. However policy learning can be difficult to achieve, and the link between learning and policy change is neither direct nor immediate. In this study we look at learning in agro-industrial policy in Ghana, by tracing the interest in sugar production and tomato processing over six decades. Specifically we ask why four failed factories established in the early 1960s have continued to play central roles in both policy and public discourse. Using policy documents, academic material, and the popular press, we show that Ghana’s policy focus on sugar production and tomato processing has endured, despite the fact that the factories were misconceived, poorly sited, ill-equipped and poorly managed. Indeed, the political ideas that underpinned the establishment of these factories in the early days of independence can be seen in the current One District, One Factory policy. We suggest that it is their symbolic and political value, not their economic value, which keeps the discussion around these factories alive. Even when shut down, they are a physical manifestation of historic commitments by the state, and as such they guarantee the attention of politicians, and hold out hope of a next re-launch. Unfortunately as long as the factories continue to be incorporated into each new generation of agro-industrial policy, it is difficult for any alternatives to gain traction. This analysis highlights the very long overhang of bad decisions, particularly when they are associated with physical infrastructure. Learning from past mistakes will only happen if the short-term political cost of turning policy learning into policy action can be overcome.     

Switching costs and financial stability

We establish that the effect of intensified deposit market competition, measured by reduced switching costs, on the probability of bank failures depends critically on whether we focus on competition with established customer relationships or competition for the formation of such relationships. With inherited customer relationships, intensified competition due to lower switching costs destabilizes the banking market, whereas it stabilizes the market if we focus on competition for the formation of customer relationships. We characterize the factors important for evaluating the effects of intensified competition on stability in a market with unattached as well as locked-in depositors.     

The endo–exo problem in high frequency financial price fluctuations and rejecting criticality

The endo–exo problem lies at the heart of statistical identification in many fields of science, and is often plagued by spurious strong-and-long memory due to improper treatment of trends, shocks and shifts in the data. A class of models that has shown to be useful in discerning exogenous and endogenous activity is the Hawkes process. This class of point processes has enjoyed great recent popularity and rapid development within the quantitative finance literature, with particular focus on the study of market microstructure and high frequency price fluctuations. We show that there are important lessons from older fields like time series and econometrics that should also be applied in financial point process modelling. In particular, we emphasize the importance of appropriately treating trends and shocks for the identification of the strength and length of memory in the system. We exploit the powerful Expectation Maximization algorithm and objective statistical criteria (BIC) to select the flexibility of the deterministic background intensity. With these methods, we strongly reject the hypothesis that the considered financial markets are critical at univariate and bivariate microstructural levels.     

How does leverage in stock market influence the margin of stock index futures?

In this article, we propose a margin-setting model under the assumption of extreme stock price changes. Specifically, extreme stock price changes are caused by the positive feedback effect of leverage and market impact. By introducing these factors into the futures price changes through a cost-of-carry model for setting the margin of stock index futures, we find that leverage and market impact in stock market are positively correlated with the margin.     

Understanding innovation

While innovation has become a pervasive term, many of today’s organizations still find innovation elusive. One reason may be that much of what is being said about innovation contributes to misunderstanding. To truly manifest innovation and reap its benefits, one must recognize that innovation is three different things: innovation is an outcome, innovation is a process, and innovation is a mindset. Innovation as an outcome emphasizes what output is sought, including product innovation, process innovation, marketing innovation, business model innovation, supply chain innovation, and organizational innovation. Innovation as a process attends to the way in which innovation should be organized so that outcomes can come to fruition; this includes an overall innovation process and a new product development process. Innovation as a mindset addresses the internalization of innovation by individual members of the organization where innovation is instilled and ingrained along with the creation of a supportive organizational culture that allows innovation to flourish. Such an understanding defines necessary elements, considerations, and vernacular surrounding the term so that better decisions can be made, thereby enabling innovation and having a greater propensity to succeed.